Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.022644 0.025705 0.029053 0.032990 0.037500 0.042509 0.048504
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.017492 0.021555 0.026397 0.032614 0.040409 0.049896 0.062369
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.014715 0.019144 0.024736 0.032348 0.042498 0.055643 0.074084
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.013171 0.017916 0.024195 0.033171 0.045767 0.062956 0.088431
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.011616 0.016407 0.023006 0.032839 0.047256 0.067835 0.099821
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.010800 0.015786 0.022909 0.033932 0.050763 0.075809 0.116500
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.009530 0.014348 0.021451 0.032814 0.050784 0.078522 0.125379
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.008609 0.013322 0.020475 0.032276 0.051566 0.082380 0.136385
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.007665 0.012158 0.019160 0.031041 0.051053 0.084039 0.143839
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.007351 0.011956 0.019329 0.032203 0.054564 0.092630 0.164093
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007059 0.011758 0.019475 0.033319 0.058081 0.101555 0.185955
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006769 0.011530 0.019540 0.034286 0.061410 0.110455 0.208789
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006253 0.010880 0.018845 0.033872 0.062261 0.115065 0.224268
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005800 0.010302 0.018228 0.033542 0.063240 0.120031 0.241122
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005403 0.009788 0.017673 0.033264 0.064267 0.125160 0.258892
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005198 0.009608 0.017711 0.034112 0.067575 0.135131 0.288085
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004858 0.009143 0.017171 0.033770 0.068437 0.140194 0.307245
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004725 0.009062 0.017358 0.034897 0.072441 0.152238 0.343585
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004342 0.008461 0.016476 0.033744 0.071483 0.153510 0.355200
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004059 0.008035 0.015908 0.033190 0.071760 0.157501 0.373739
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003726 0.007484 0.015040 0.031918 0.070310 0.157439 0.382365
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003660 0.007477 0.015296 0.033115 0.074572 0.170988 0.426873
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003592 0.007458 0.015521 0.034264 0.078842 0.185027 0.474609